Tough one yesterday — 2 from 5. The edge is long-term, not daily.
The serve numbers are close — Anna Bondar holds at 70%, Elina Svitolina at 75%. Neither player has a huge edge on serve, so this could come down to who handles the big moments better.
On return, Elina Svitolina breaks at 43% — that's a serious return game. Anna Bondar only manages 32%. If Elina Svitolina's serve holds up even moderately well, the return numbers suggest they'll create enough chances to win this.
The pressure stats are where this gets interesting. Elina Svitolina's choke index is 0.05 — they hold it together in tight moments. Anna Bondar is at 0.15, meaning they give up leads significantly more often. If this match goes close, the data says Elina Svitolina is more likely to hold their nerve.
Conditions look calm (6 km/h wind) — good for serving, which generally favours the better server in the matchup.
The market has Anna Bondar at 3.95 and Elina Svitolina at 1.15. The market slightly favours Elina Svitolina.
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