Mixed bag yesterday — 1 and 1 from our pre-match signals.
The serve numbers are close — Marta Kostyuk holds at 68%, Elina Svitolina at 71%. Neither player has a huge edge on serve, so this could come down to who handles the big moments better.
Return games are close too — Marta Kostyuk breaks at 46%, Elina Svitolina at 42%. Both players will fancy their chances on return, which could make for a competitive match with plenty of breaks.
Pressure stats are similar — Marta Kostyuk at 0.12, Elina Svitolina at 0.06. Neither player has a standout edge in the tight moments, so this might come down to who's feeling it on the day.
Worth noting: Elina Svitolina has the better tiebreak record (62% vs 46%). If a set comes down to a breaker, there's a slight statistical edge there.
The market has Marta Kostyuk at 1.83 and Elina Svitolina at 2.16. Pretty tight — the books see this as close to a coinflip.
Whether the market has this right is something our model takes a view on every day. We don't give away picks on the blog — but subscribers get the full probability, edge calculation, and staking advice delivered to Telegram every morning.
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