Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk — The HSBC Championships

June 08, 2026 · Hard · More previews

New day, new card. Here's the match that stands out from the schedule.

The serve battle

The serve numbers are close — Mika Stojsavljevic holds at 66%, Marta Kostyuk at 67%. Neither player has a huge edge on serve, so this could come down to who handles the big moments better.

Mika Stojsavljevic averages 0.8 aces per service game — genuine free points that can bail you out of trouble on the bigger points.

Return game

On return, Marta Kostyuk breaks at 50% — that's a serious return game. Mika Stojsavljevic only manages 36%. If Marta Kostyuk's serve holds up even moderately well, the return numbers suggest they'll create enough chances to win this.

Under pressure

The pressure stats are where this gets interesting. Mika Stojsavljevic's choke index is 0.00 — they hold it together in tight moments. Marta Kostyuk is at 0.12, meaning they give up leads significantly more often. If this match goes close, the data says Mika Stojsavljevic is more likely to hold their nerve.

StojsavljevicKostyuk
Hold %66%67%
Break %36%50%
Choke index0.000.12
Betfair6.201.05

What the market says

The market has Mika Stojsavljevic at 6.20 and Marta Kostyuk at 1.05. The market slightly favours Marta Kostyuk.

Whether the market has this right is something our model takes a view on every day. We don't give away picks on the blog — but subscribers get the full probability, edge calculation, and staking advice delivered to Telegram every morning.


Daily signals to Telegram every morning. Probabilities, pressure profiles, and staking advice for every match with value.

Try it free for 7 days →
131W 159L since launch · +21.9% bank growth · Every signal tracked
🎾 One free model pick, every morning
The same engine behind our tracked record — in your inbox before play starts. No spam, unsubscribe anytime.