Mixed bag yesterday — 1 and 1 from our pre-match signals.
The serve numbers are close — Joao Fonseca holds at 84%, Yannick Hanfmann at 82%. Neither player has a huge edge on serve, so this could come down to who handles the big moments better.
Return games are close too — Joao Fonseca breaks at 21%, Yannick Hanfmann at 14%. Both players will fancy their chances on return, which could make for a competitive match with plenty of breaks.
The pressure stats are where this gets interesting. Yannick Hanfmann's choke index is 0.12 — they hold it together in tight moments. Joao Fonseca is at 0.25, meaning they give up leads significantly more often. If this match goes close, the data says Yannick Hanfmann is more likely to hold their nerve.
Wind is forecast at 22 km/h — expect some disruption to serve patterns, especially on the toss. Players who rely on a big first serve may struggle.
The market has Joao Fonseca at 1.41 and Yannick Hanfmann at 2.48. The market slightly favours Joao Fonseca.
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