Tough one yesterday — 1 from 5. The edge is long-term, not daily.
The serve numbers tell a clear story here. Aryna Sabalenka holds at 76% — comfortably above average. Ekaterina Alexandrova is down at 63%, which means they're getting broken regularly. On hard, that gap matters even more because the returner has more time to work with.
On return, Aryna Sabalenka breaks at 42% — that's a serious return game. Ekaterina Alexandrova only manages 32%. If Aryna Sabalenka's serve holds up even moderately well, the return numbers suggest they'll create enough chances to win this.
The pressure stats are where this gets interesting. Aryna Sabalenka's choke index is 0.07 — they hold it together in tight moments. Ekaterina Alexandrova is at 0.18, meaning they give up leads significantly more often. If this match goes close, the data says Aryna Sabalenka is more likely to hold their nerve.
Worth noting: Aryna Sabalenka has the better tiebreak record (83% vs 41%). If a set comes down to a breaker, there's a slight statistical edge there.
The market has Ekaterina Alexandrova at 5.40 and Aryna Sabalenka at 1.07. The market slightly favours Aryna Sabalenka.
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