Tough one yesterday — 0 from 2. The edge is long-term, not daily.
The serve numbers are close — Aryna Sabalenka holds at 74%, Nikola Bartunkova at 68%. Neither player has a huge edge on serve, so this could come down to who handles the big moments better.
Return games are close too — Aryna Sabalenka breaks at 39%, Nikola Bartunkova at 35%. Both players will fancy their chances on return, which could make for a competitive match with plenty of breaks.
Pressure stats are similar — Aryna Sabalenka at 0.08, Nikola Bartunkova at 0.17. Neither player has a standout edge in the tight moments, so this might come down to who's feeling it on the day.
Worth noting: Aryna Sabalenka has the better tiebreak record (82% vs 50%). If a set comes down to a breaker, there's a slight statistical edge there.
The market has Aryna Sabalenka at 1.13 and Nikola Bartunkova at 7.60. The market slightly favours Aryna Sabalenka.
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