Good day yesterday — 2 from 3 signals landed.
Yesterday's signals: 2W 1L (+2.1%)
The serve numbers are close — Alexandra Eala holds at 65%, Elise Mertens at 67%. Neither player has a huge edge on serve, so this could come down to who handles the big moments better.
Return games are close too — Alexandra Eala breaks at 36%, Elise Mertens at 40%. Both players will fancy their chances on return, which could make for a competitive match with plenty of breaks.
Pressure stats are similar — Alexandra Eala at 0.19, Elise Mertens at 0.25. Neither player has a standout edge in the tight moments, so this might come down to who's feeling it on the day.
Worth noting: Alexandra Eala has the better tiebreak record (53% vs 42%). If a set comes down to a breaker, there's a slight statistical edge there.
The market has Alexandra Eala at 2.46 and Elise Mertens at 1.68. The market slightly favours Elise Mertens.
Whether the market has this right is something our model takes a view on every day. We don't give away picks on the blog — but subscribers get the full probability, edge calculation, and staking advice delivered to Telegram every morning.
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