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ATP · Player Profile

Francisco Cerundolo

ATP · Argentina · Updated 21 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-06-21
Next matchToday · 12:30
vs Tommy Paul
HSBC Championships · Hard
Our model34%Market33%Price3.00Edge+0.8%
At a glance · Francisco Cerundolo

Form & fitness

Form
Red-hot
last 10 matches · 4W streak
Fitness
Tournament grinder
1 day rest · 7 matches in 28d
Last match
yesterday
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 11 months↓ -119 pts

Model carry-in

Francisco Cerundolo sits in the tour median band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On hard, the model rates them above their overall number — a clear surface specialism. Pressure profile: good — better than tour median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on hard reads as above tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 395-272 (59.2%) across 667 matches — hard 126-120, clay 245-124, grass 13-18. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
2019
Clay
1989
Grass
1598
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1081.8%
Hold rate vs 11–5078.0%
Hold rate vs 51–10074.4%
Hold rate vs 100+83.1%

How well Francisco Cerundolo holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Federico Coria 10 meetings4–6

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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143W 189L · +15.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
1974
tour median
Hard Welo
2093
+119 above overall · surface specialism
Choke Index
0.274
good — better than tour median
Projected Hold
80.1%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo2093 (+119)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w29-11
Clay
Welo1989
Hold % (52w)75.2%
Last 52w9-7
Grass
Welo1598 (-376)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w0-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-06-21
Hold rate service games won78.7%
Break rate return games won27.0%
First serve in 1st serves landing in59.8%
Ace rate aces per service point1.0%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo45.0%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo50.0%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down30.9%
Collapse rate lost from a set up19.7%
Recent form (last 10 matches)
W vs Brandon NakashimaHSBC Championships · 2026-06-20 · H · R326-7 6-3 6-4
W vs Arthur FeryHSBC Championships · 2026-06-19 · H · R327-6 3-6 6-4
W vs Jenson BrooksbyHSBC Championships · 2026-06-17 · H · R326-0 6-4
W vs Aleksandar KovacevicHSBC Championships · 2026-06-16 · H · R326-4 6-7 6-2
L vs Zachary SvajdaRoland Garros · 2026-05-30 · C · R326-3 6-4 3-6 4-6 6-3
W vs Hugo GastonRoland Garros · 2026-05-28 · C · R322-6 6-4 6-2 6-1
W vs Botic Van De ZandschulpRoland Garros · 2026-05-25 · C · R326-3 6-4 6-7 6-4
L vs Alex De MinaurBitpanda Hamburg Open · 2026-05-18 · C · R323-6 6-4 6-3
L vs Lorenzo MusettiInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-10 · H · R327-6 6-4
W vs Alejandro TabiloInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-08 · H · R326-0 6-2
Career splits
Overall395-272 (59.2%)
Hard126-120 (51.2%)
Clay245-124 (66.4%)
Grass13-18 (41.9%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Faded vs Francisco CerundoloRoland Garros · 2026-05-27 · C@ 4.50 · LOST · -0.46u
Faded vs Francisco CerundoloMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-27 · C@ 2.84 · LOST · -0.87u
Faded vs Francisco CerundoloMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-25 · C@ 3.40 · LOST · -0.80u
Backed vs Jan-Lennard StruffBMW Open by Bitpanda · 2026-04-13 · H@ 2.40 · WON · +1.96u
Faded vs Francisco CerundoloRolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 2026-04-06 · C@ 2.08 · LOST · -1.15u
Faded vs Francisco CerundoloMiami Open presented by Itau · 2026-03-26 · H@ 1.37 · WON · +0.74u
Faded vs Francisco CerundoloMiami Open presented by Itau · 2026-03-24 · H@ 1.93 · LOST · -2.00u
Faded vs Francisco CerundoloMiami Open · 2026-03-24 · H@ 1.97 · LOST · -2.00u
Frequently asked
How old is Francisco Cerundolo?

Francisco Cerundolo was born on 13 August 1998, making them 27 years old and represents Argentina. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Francisco Cerundolo in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Francisco Cerundolo has gone 4-1 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first) — in strong form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Francisco Cerundolo's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Francisco Cerundolo's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 2019 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 29-11.

How does Francisco Cerundolo perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.274 — good — better than tour median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Francisco Cerundolo's career win rate?

Francisco Cerundolo has won 395 of 667 matches in our database (59.2%). By surface: hard 126-120, clay 245-124, grass 13-18.

How often does Francisco Cerundolo hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Francisco Cerundolo to hold 80.1% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Francisco Cerundolo?

Yes — we've issued 8 settled signals involving Francisco Cerundolo. Record: 2 wins, 6 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Francisco Cerundolo play on?

Francisco Cerundolo competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Francisco Cerundolo: 2W 6L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-06-21. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling