fault.betPlayersMariano Navone
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ATP · Player Profile

Mariano Navone

ATP · Argentina · Updated 21 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-06-21
Next matchToday · 13:00
vs Lorenzo Sonego
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Championships · Grass
Our model39%Market50%Price2.02Edge+3.4%
At a glance · Mariano Navone

Form & fitness

Form
Solid form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Active
25 days rest · 2 matches in 28d
Last match
25d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 11 months↑ +23 pts

Model carry-in

Mariano Navone sits in the tour median band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On grass, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: good — better than tour median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on grass reads as above tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 204-157 (56.5%) across 361 matches — hard 20-40, clay 183-112, grass 1-5. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Clay
1947
Hard
1902
Grass
1600
Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Luciano Darderi 8 meetings5–3
Federico Coria 5 meetings4–1

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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143W 189L · +15.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2049
tour median
Grass Welo
1464
-585 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.320
good — better than tour median
Projected Hold
77.1%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1902 (-147)
Hold % (52w)77.5%
Last 52w11-16
Clay
Welo1947 (-102)
Hold % (52w)73.3%
Last 52w14-6
Grass
Welo1464 (-585)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w1-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-06-21
Hold rate service games won74.2%
Break rate return games won23.0%
First serve in 1st serves landing in69.8%
Ace rate aces per service point4.2%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo60.0%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo28.6%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down26.8%
Collapse rate lost from a set up23.6%
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Jakub MensikRoland Garros · 2026-05-27 · C · R326-3 2-6 6-4 1-6 7-6
W vs Jenson BrooksbyRoland Garros · 2026-05-25 · C · R326-4 6-4 6-4
L vs Learner TienGeneva Open · 2026-05-23 · C · F3-6 6-3 7-5
W vs Christian RuudGeneva Open · 2026-05-22 · C · SF7-5 6-2
W vs Casper RuudGonet Geneva Open · 2026-05-22 · C · R327-5 6-2
W vs Jaume MunarGonet Geneva Open · 2026-05-21 · C · R326-2 6-2
W vs Cameron NorrieGonet Geneva Open · 2026-05-20 · C · R326-4 6-4
W vs Marco TrungellitiGonet Geneva Open · 2026-05-17 · C · R325-7 7-5 6-1
L vs Hamad MedjedovicInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-11 · H · R324-6 6-3 6-4
W vs Felix Auger-AliassimeInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-09 · H · R327-6 7-6
Career splits
Overall204-157 (56.5%)
Hard20-40 (33.3%)
Clay183-112 (62.0%)
Grass1-5 (16.7%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Backed vs Jakub MensikRoland Garros · 2026-05-27 · C@ 2.22 · LOST · -0.93u
Faded vs Mariano NavoneGonet Geneva Open · 2026-05-23 · C@ 2.46 · WON · +1.36u
Faded vs Mariano NavoneGonet Geneva Open · 2026-05-17 · C@ 3.70 · LOST · -0.51u
Faded vs Mariano NavoneInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-07 · C@ 2.80 · LOST · -0.81u
Backed vs Alex MolcanTiriac Open presented by UniCredit Bank · 2026-04-03 · H@ 1.42 · WON · +0.74u
Frequently asked
How old is Mariano Navone?

Mariano Navone was born on 27 February 2001, making them 25 years old and represents Argentina. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Mariano Navone in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Mariano Navone has gone 3-2 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first) — in solid form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Mariano Navone's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Mariano Navone's strongest surface is clay, where they rate at 1947 Welo. Their record in our database on clay over the last 52 weeks is 14-6.

How does Mariano Navone perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.320 — good — better than tour median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Mariano Navone's career win rate?

Mariano Navone has won 204 of 361 matches in our database (56.5%). By surface: hard 20-40, clay 183-112, grass 1-5.

How often does Mariano Navone hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Mariano Navone to hold 77.1% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Mariano Navone?

Yes — we've issued 5 settled signals involving Mariano Navone. Record: 2 wins, 3 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Mariano Navone play on?

Mariano Navone competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Mariano Navone: 2W 3L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-06-21. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling