fault.betPlayersJasmine Paolini
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WTA · Player Profile

Jasmine Paolini

WTA · — · Updated 21 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-06-21
Next matchTuesday · 04:00
vs Tatjana Maria
Lexus Eastbourne Open · Grass
Our model50%Edge0.0%
At a glance · Jasmine Paolini

Form & fitness

Form
Mixed form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Active
25 days rest · 2 matches in 28d
Last match
25d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 10 months↑ +11 pts

Model carry-in

Jasmine Paolini sits in the tour median band of active WTA-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On grass, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: good — better than tour median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on grass reads as around tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 37-21 (63.8%) across 58 matches — hard 26-15, clay 11-5, grass 0-1. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
1920
Clay
1869
Grass
1615
Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Maria Sakkari 3 meetings1–2

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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143W 189L · +15.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
1948
tour median
Grass Welo
1770
-178 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.222
good — better than tour median
Projected Hold
66.0%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1920 (-28)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w19-11
Clay
Welo1869 (-79)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w2-3
Grass
Welo1770 (-178)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w0-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-06-21
Hold rate service games won63.3%
Break rate return games won39.4%
First serve in 1st serves landing in66.2%
Ace rate aces per service point17.3%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo43.8%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo63.2%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down29.6%
Collapse rate lost from a set up22.2%
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Solana SierraRoland Garros · 2026-05-27 · C · R323-6 6-4 6-3
W vs Dayana YastremskaRoland Garros · 2026-05-25 · C · R327-5 6-3
L vs Elise MertensInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-09 · H · R324-6 7-6 6-3
W vs Leolia JeanjeanInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-07 · H · R326-7 6-2 6-4
L vs Hailey BaptisteMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-25 · C · R327-5 6-3
W vs Laura SiegemundMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-23 · C · R323-6 6-2 6-4
L vs Zeynep SonmezPorsche Tennis Grand Prix · 2026-04-15 · C · R1286-2 6-2
L vs Jelena OstapenkoMiami Open · 2026-03-22 · H · R325-7 6-2 7-5
L vs Jelena OstapenkoMiami Open · 2026-03-21 · H · 6-3 6-4
W vs Ti TownsendMiami Open · 2026-03-20 · H · R646-3 1-6 6-2
Career splits
Overall37-21 (63.8%)
Hard26-15 (63.4%)
Clay11-5 (68.8%)
Grass0-1 (0.0%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Backed vs Jelena OstapenkoMiami Open presented by Itau · 2026-03-22 · H@ 1.77 · LOST · -1.01u
Frequently asked
Is Jasmine Paolini in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Jasmine Paolini has gone 2-3 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first) — in patchy form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Jasmine Paolini's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Jasmine Paolini's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 1920 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 19-11.

How does Jasmine Paolini perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.222 — good — better than tour median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Jasmine Paolini's career win rate?

Jasmine Paolini has won 37 of 58 matches in our database (63.8%). By surface: hard 26-15, clay 11-5, grass 0-1.

How often does Jasmine Paolini hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Jasmine Paolini to hold 66.0% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Jasmine Paolini?

Yes — we've issued 1 settled signals involving Jasmine Paolini. Record: 0 wins, 1 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Jasmine Paolini play on?

Jasmine Paolini competes on the WTA tour. Our model covers every active WTA player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Jasmine Paolini: 0W 1L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-06-21. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling