fault.betPlayersJelena Ostapenko
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WTA · Player Profile

Jelena Ostapenko

WTA · — · Updated 21 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-06-21
Next matchTomorrow · 04:00
vs Francesca Jones
Lexus Eastbourne Open · Grass
Our model58%Market79%Price1.26Edge+7.0%
At a glance · Jelena Ostapenko

Form & fitness

Form
Solid form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Active
25 days rest · 2 matches in 28d
Last match
25d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 11 months↑ +43 pts

Model carry-in

Jelena Ostapenko sits in the top tier band of active WTA-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On grass, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: tour-median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on grass reads as around tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 36-34 (51.4%) across 70 matches — hard 26-27, clay 9-6, grass 1-1. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
1889
Clay
1864
Grass
1628
Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Xiao Yu Wang 3 meetings1–2

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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143W 189L · +15.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2063
top tier
Grass Welo
1730
-333 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.364
tour-median
Projected Hold
68.5%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1889 (-174)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w20-17
Clay
Welo1864 (-199)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w3-4
Grass
Welo1730 (-333)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w1-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-06-21
Hold rate service games won63.3%
Break rate return games won40.5%
First serve in 1st serves landing in58.3%
Ace rate aces per service point32.8%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo57.1%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo41.2%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down31.0%
Collapse rate lost from a set up30.8%
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Magda LinetteRoland Garros · 2026-05-27 · C · R326-2 2-6 6-2
W vs Ella SeidelRoland Garros · 2026-05-25 · C · R326-4 6-4
L vs Sorana CirsteaInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-12 · H · R326-1 7-6
W vs Anna KalinskayaInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-11 · H · R326-1 6-2
W vs Qinwen ZhengInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-09 · H · R324-6 6-4 6-4
W vs Elena Gabriela RuseInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-07 · H · R322-6 6-2 6-3
W vs Lucrezia StefaniniInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-06 · H · R326-0 6-1
L vs Anastasia PotapovaMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-26 · C · R324-6 6-4 6-4
W vs Simona WaltertMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-24 · C · R326-2 7-5
L vs Mirra AndreevaPorsche Tennis Grand Prix · 2026-04-15 · C · R1285-7 6-2 6-4
Career splits
Overall36-34 (51.4%)
Hard26-27 (49.1%)
Clay9-6 (60.0%)
Grass1-1 (50.0%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Faded vs Jelena OstapenkoMiami Open presented by Itau · 2026-03-23 · H@ 2.02 · WON · +1.80u
Faded vs Jelena OstapenkoMiami Open presented by Itau · 2026-03-22 · H@ 1.77 · LOST · -1.01u
Frequently asked
Is Jelena Ostapenko in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Jelena Ostapenko has gone 3-2 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first) — in solid form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Jelena Ostapenko's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Jelena Ostapenko's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 1889 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 20-17.

How does Jelena Ostapenko perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.364 — tour-median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Jelena Ostapenko's career win rate?

Jelena Ostapenko has won 36 of 70 matches in our database (51.4%). By surface: hard 26-27, clay 9-6, grass 1-1.

How often does Jelena Ostapenko hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Jelena Ostapenko to hold 68.5% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Jelena Ostapenko?

Yes — we've issued 2 settled signals involving Jelena Ostapenko. Record: 1 wins, 1 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Jelena Ostapenko play on?

Jelena Ostapenko competes on the WTA tour. Our model covers every active WTA player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Jelena Ostapenko: 1W 1L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-06-21. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling