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ATP · Player Profile

Toby Samuel

ATP · Great Britain · Updated 18 Jul 2026 · data snapshot 2026-06-30
At a glance · Toby Samuel

Form & fitness

Form
Cold streak
last 10 matches · 3L streak
Fitness
Well-rested
18 days rest · 6 matches in 28d
Last match
18d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · this year↑ +435 pts

Model carry-in

Toby Samuel sits in the top tier band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On grass, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: tour-median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Career record in our database: 52-29 (64.2%) across 81 matches — hard 32-16, clay 3-2, grass 17-11. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Clay
1754
Grass
1645
Hard
1612
Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Millen Hurrion 3 meetings3–0
Daniel Cox 3 meetings1–2

Full data & recent form

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A visual Player Lab — serve/return radar, surface power, form & clutch index — plus surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, the full service & return profile, recent form and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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167W 227L · +16.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly

Player Lab

A visual read on Toby Samuel’s serve, return, form and nerve — from the model’s feature store.

🎯 Serve / Return DNA
vs the ATP field · 50 = tour median
🏟️ Surface Power
rating by surface (wElo)
📈 Form Trend
rating swing · last 8 weeks
🧊 Clutch Index
break points · tiebreaks · deciders
Weighted Elo
2070
top tier
Grass Welo
1645
-425 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.396
tour-median
Projected Hold
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1612 (-458)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w0-1
Clay
Welo1754 (-316)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w3-1
Grass
Welo1645 (-425)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w3-4
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-06-30
Hold rate service games won
Break rate return games won
First serve in 1st serves landing in
Ace rate aces per service point
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo52.1%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo48.9%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down
Collapse rate lost from a set up
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Jakub MensikWimbledon · 2026-06-30 · G · R1285-7 6-3 6-3 3-6 7-6
L vs Jakub MensikWimbledon · 2026-06-30 · G · R325-7 6-3 6-3 3-6 7-6
L vs Zizou BergsLexus Eastbourne Open · 2026-06-26 · G · R324-6 7-6 6-2
W vs Juan Manuel CerundoloLexus Eastbourne Open · 2026-06-25 · G · R326-3 6-4
W vs Thiago Agustin TiranteLexus Eastbourne Open · 2026-06-24 · G · R326-1 7-6
L vs Matteo ArnaldiLexus Eastbourne Open · 2026-06-21 · G · R323-6 6-4 6-4
W vs Quentin HalysLexus Eastbourne Open · 2026-06-20 · G · R326-2 6-4
L vs Arthur FeryHSBC Championships · 2026-06-16 · H · R326-0 6-2
L vs Alex De MinaurRoland Garros · 2026-05-25 · C · R326-4 6-4 6-2
W vs Gonzalo BuenoRoland Garros · 2026-05-21 · C · R325-7 6-1 6-3
Career splits
Overall52-29 (64.2%)
Hard32-16 (66.7%)
Clay3-2 (60.0%)
Grass17-11 (60.7%)
Frequently asked
How old is Toby Samuel?

Toby Samuel was born on 06 September 2002, making them 23 years old and represents Great Britain. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Toby Samuel in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Toby Samuel has gone 2-3 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first) — in patchy form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Toby Samuel's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Toby Samuel's strongest surface is clay, where they rate at 1754 Welo. Their record in our database on clay over the last 52 weeks is 3-1.

How does Toby Samuel perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.396 — tour-median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Toby Samuel's career win rate?

Toby Samuel has won 52 of 81 matches in our database (64.2%). By surface: hard 32-16, clay 3-2, grass 17-11.

What tour does Toby Samuel play on?

Toby Samuel competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-06-30. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling