fault.betPlayersDaniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev photo
ATP · Player Profile

Daniil Medvedev

ATP · Russia · Updated 22 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-06-13
At a glance · Daniil Medvedev

Form & fitness

Form
Solid form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Tournament grinder
3 days rest · 7 matches in 28d
Last match
3d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 11 months↓ -207 pts

Model carry-in

Daniil Medvedev sits in the top tier band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On grass, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: good — better than tour median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on grass reads as above tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 594-250 (70.4%) across 844 matches — hard 432-166, clay 90-53, grass 60-26. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
1965
Clay
1949
Grass
1762
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1078.9%
Hold rate vs 11–5081.8%
Hold rate vs 51–10082.1%

How well Daniil Medvedev holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Jan Lennard Struff 11 meetings9–2

Full data & recent form

PREMIUM
Unlock Daniil Medvedev’s full profile
Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
Try free for 7 days →
144W 191L · +15.0% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2060
top tier
Grass Welo
1910
-150 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.296
good — better than tour median
Projected Hold
76.6%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1965 (-94)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w44-21
Clay
Welo1949 (-111)
Hold % (52w)80.0%
Last 52w4-3
Grass
Welo1910 (-150)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w0-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-06-13
Hold rate service games won79.8%
Break rate return games won24.3%
First serve in 1st serves landing in65.3%
Ace rate aces per service point18.4%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo51.7%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo56.5%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down47.5%
Collapse rate lost from a set up24.2%
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Daniel AltmaierTerra Wortmann Open · 2026-06-19 · H · R326-4 6-7 6-4
W vs Terence AtmaneTerra Wortmann Open · 2026-06-17 · H · R326-4 6-4
W vs Tomas Martin EtcheverryTerra Wortmann Open · 2026-06-16 · H · R326-3 6-4
W vs Marin CilicLibéma Open · 2026-06-13 · H · R326-2 3-6 6-1
L vs Kamil MajchrzakLibéma Open · 2026-06-13 · H · R327-6 6-1
W vs Thijs BoogaardLibéma Open · 2026-06-12 · H · R326-3 4-6 7-6
L vs Adam WaltonRoland Garros · 2026-05-26 · C · R326-2 1-6 6-1 1-6 6-4
L vs Jannik SinnerInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-16 · H · R326-2 5-7 6-4
W vs Martin LandaluceInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-14 · C · QF1-6 6-4 7-5
W vs Martin LandaluceInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-14 · H · R321-6 6-4 7-5
Career splits
Overall594-250 (70.4%)
Hard432-166 (72.2%)
Clay90-53 (62.9%)
Grass60-26 (69.8%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Faded vs Daniil MedvedevInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-14 · C@ 3.30 · LOST · -0.52u
Faded vs Daniil MedvedevInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-11 · C@ 3.25 · LOST · -0.53u
Faded vs Daniil MedvedevMiami Open presented by Itau · 2026-03-23 · H@ 4.30 · LOST · -0.26u
Frequently asked
How old is Daniil Medvedev?

Daniil Medvedev was born on 11 February 1996, making them 30 years old and represents Russia. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Daniil Medvedev in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Daniil Medvedev has gone 3-2 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first) — in solid form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Daniil Medvedev's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Daniil Medvedev's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 1965 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 44-21.

How does Daniil Medvedev perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.296 — good — better than tour median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Daniil Medvedev's career win rate?

Daniil Medvedev has won 594 of 844 matches in our database (70.4%). By surface: hard 432-166, clay 90-53, grass 60-26.

How often does Daniil Medvedev hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Daniil Medvedev to hold 76.6% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Daniil Medvedev?

Yes — we've issued 3 settled signals involving Daniil Medvedev. Record: 0 wins, 3 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Daniil Medvedev play on?

Daniil Medvedev competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

Daily ATP signals + full player dashboards

Pre-match value picks every morning · Live Elo, choke index and projected hold for every active player · Pinnacle-fair-price edge calculation · Inplay alerts on Premium

Try free for 7 days →
Our signal record on Daniil Medvedev: 0W 3L · every pick logged at /results
🔔 Get an alert when Daniil Medvedev next plays

Drop your email and we'll send the model's read — price, edge and projected hold — the morning Daniil Medvedev is next on court. Free.

Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-06-13. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling