fault.betPlayersPablo Carreno Busta
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ATP · Player Profile

Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP · Spain · Updated 23 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-05-31
At a glance · Pablo Carreno Busta

Form & fitness

Form
Solid form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Active
23 days rest · 3 matches in 28d
Last match
23d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · this year↓ -41 pts

Model carry-in

Pablo Carreno Busta sits in the top tier band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On clay, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: tour-median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Career record in our database: 556-325 (63.1%) across 881 matches — hard 217-142, clay 328-169, grass 6-14. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Clay
1970
Hard
1802
Grass
1524
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1084.5%
Hold rate vs 11–5085.9%
Hold rate vs 51–10088.5%
Hold rate vs 100+87.9%

How well Pablo Carreno Busta holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Benoit Paire 15 meetings6–9
Roberto Carballes Baena 10 meetings8–2
Fabio Fognini 10 meetings8–2
Dominic Thiem 10 meetings2–8
Federico Delbonis 9 meetings4–5

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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146W 192L · +16.4% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2175
top tier
Clay Welo
1970
-206 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.395
tour-median
Projected Hold
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1802 (-373)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w2-1
Clay
Welo1970 (-206)
Hold % (52w)83.3%
Last 52w4-3
Grass
Welo1524 (-652)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-05-31
Hold rate service games won83.3%
Break rate return games won17.6%
First serve in 1st serves landing in0.0%
Ace rate aces per service point0.0%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo55.5%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo56.5%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down
Collapse rate lost from a set up
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Rafael JodarRoland Garros · 2026-05-31 · C · R324-6 4-6 6-1 6-2 6-2
W vs Thiago Agustin TiranteRoland Garros · 2026-05-29 · C · R327-6 7-5 3-6 6-4
W vs Thanasi KokkinakisRoland Garros · 2026-05-27 · C · R327-5 4-6 1-0
W vs Jiri LeheckaRoland Garros · 2026-05-25 · C · R326-3 7-6 6-3
L vs Alejandro TabiloInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-06 · H · R326-2 6-1
W vs Stan WawrinkaInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-05 · H · R32
W vs Martin DammInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-04 · H · R326-3 6-3
L vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-25 · C · R326-3 6-3
W vs Marton FucsovicsMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-23 · C · R324-6 7-6 6-2
L vs Pedro MartinezBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell · 2026-04-11 · C · R326-3 4-3
Career splits
Overall556-325 (63.1%)
Hard217-142 (60.4%)
Clay328-169 (66.0%)
Grass6-14 (30.0%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Backed vs Thiago Agustin TiranteRoland Garros · 2026-05-29 · C@ 3.05 · WON · +1.74u
Faded vs Pablo Carreno BustaInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-05 · C@ 3.05 · LOST · -0.53u
Faded vs Pablo Carreno BustaMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-23 · C@ 1.98 · LOST · -0.90u
Faded vs Pablo Carreno Busta · 2026-04-22@ 1.98 · LOST · -1.50u
Frequently asked
How old is Pablo Carreno Busta?

Pablo Carreno Busta was born on 12 July 1991, making them 34 years old and represents Spain. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Pablo Carreno Busta in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Pablo Carreno Busta has gone 3-2 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first) — in solid form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Pablo Carreno Busta's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Pablo Carreno Busta's strongest surface is clay, where they rate at 1970 Welo. Their record in our database on clay over the last 52 weeks is 4-3.

How does Pablo Carreno Busta perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.395 — tour-median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Pablo Carreno Busta's career win rate?

Pablo Carreno Busta has won 556 of 881 matches in our database (63.1%). By surface: hard 217-142, clay 328-169, grass 6-14.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Pablo Carreno Busta?

Yes — we've issued 4 settled signals involving Pablo Carreno Busta. Record: 1 wins, 3 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Pablo Carreno Busta play on?

Pablo Carreno Busta competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Pablo Carreno Busta: 1W 3L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-05-31. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling