fault.betPlayersAryna Sabalenka
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WTA · Player Profile

Aryna Sabalenka

WTA · Belarus · Updated 21 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-06-20
At a glance · Aryna Sabalenka

Form & fitness

Form
Solid form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Tournament grinder
1 day rest · 8 matches in 28d
Last match
yesterday
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 11 months↓ -430 pts

Model carry-in

Aryna Sabalenka sits in the top tier band of active WTA-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On hard, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: good — better than tour median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Career record in our database: 392-152 (72.1%) across 544 matches — hard 282-101, clay 88-39, grass 17-12. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
1971
Clay
1934
Grass
1662
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1079.5%
Hold rate vs 11–5080.3%
Hold rate vs 51–10091.5%
Hold rate vs 100+90.6%

How well Aryna Sabalenka holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Garrett Patton 9 meetings7–2

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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143W 189L · +15.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2075
top tier
Hard Welo
1971
-104 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.325
good — better than tour median
Projected Hold
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1971 (-104)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w37-5
Clay
Welo1934 (-141)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w8-2
Grass
Welo1662 (-413)
Hold % (52w)90.0%
Last 52w6-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-06-20
Hold rate service games won
Break rate return games won
First serve in 1st serves landing in
Ace rate aces per service point
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo56.1%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo54.9%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down
Collapse rate lost from a set up
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Jessica PegulaVANDA Pharmaceuticals Berlin Tennis Open · 2026-06-20 · H · R326-4 6-7 6-0
W vs Nikola BartunkovaVANDA Pharmaceuticals Berlin Tennis Open · 2026-06-19 · H · R322-6 7-6 6-4
W vs Ekaterina AlexandrovaVANDA Pharmaceuticals Berlin Tennis Open · 2026-06-17 · H · R326-4 6-4
L vs Diana ShnaiderRoland Garros · 2026-06-03 · C · R323-6 7-5 6-0
W vs Naomi OsakaRoland Garros · 2026-06-01 · C · R327-5 6-3
W vs Daria KasatkinaRoland Garros · 2026-05-30 · C · R326-0 7-5
W vs Elsa JacquemotRoland Garros · 2026-05-28 · C · R327-5 6-2
W vs Jessica Bouzas ManeiroRoland Garros · 2026-05-26 · C · R326-4 6-2
L vs Sorana CirsteaInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-09 · H · R322-6 6-3 7-5
W vs Barbora KrejcikovaInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-07 · H · R326-2 6-3
Career splits
Overall392-152 (72.1%)
Hard282-101 (73.6%)
Clay88-39 (69.3%)
Grass17-12 (58.6%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Faded vs Aryna SabalenkaMiami Open presented by Itau · 2026-03-28 · H@ 3.05 · LOST · -0.63u
Frequently asked
How old is Aryna Sabalenka?

Aryna Sabalenka was born on 05 May 1998, making them 28 years old and represents Belarus. They compete on the WTA tour.

Is Aryna Sabalenka in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Aryna Sabalenka has gone 3-2 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first) — in solid form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Aryna Sabalenka's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Aryna Sabalenka's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 1971 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 37-5.

How does Aryna Sabalenka perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.325 — good — better than tour median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Aryna Sabalenka's career win rate?

Aryna Sabalenka has won 392 of 544 matches in our database (72.1%). By surface: hard 282-101, clay 88-39, grass 17-12.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Aryna Sabalenka?

Yes — we've issued 1 settled signals involving Aryna Sabalenka. Record: 0 wins, 1 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Aryna Sabalenka play on?

Aryna Sabalenka competes on the WTA tour. Our model covers every active WTA player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Aryna Sabalenka: 0W 1L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-06-20. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling