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ATP · Player Profile

Reilly Opelka

ATP · United States · Updated 23 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-05-24
At a glance · Reilly Opelka

Form & fitness

Form
Cold streak
last 10 matches · 5L streak
Fitness
Long layoff
30 days rest · 0 matches in 28d
Last match
30d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 11 months↓ -81 pts

Model carry-in

Reilly Opelka sits in the top tier band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On clay, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: below tour median — fades in pressure moments. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Career record in our database: 223-188 (54.3%) across 411 matches — hard 168-126, clay 44-46, grass 11-16. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
2036
Clay
1846
Grass
1633
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1082.8%
Hold rate vs 11–5088.4%
Hold rate vs 51–10097.1%
Hold rate vs 100+93.3%

How well Reilly Opelka holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Dominik Koepfer 7 meetings4–3
John Isner 6 meetings5–1

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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146W 192L · +16.4% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2160
top tier
Clay Welo
1846
-314 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.574
below tour median — fades in pressure moments
Projected Hold
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo2036 (-125)
Hold % (52w)89.7%
Last 52w14-13
Clay
Welo1846 (-314)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w0-3
Grass
Welo1633 (-527)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w1-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-05-24
Hold rate service games won66.7%
Break rate return games won0.0%
First serve in 1st serves landing in0.0%
Ace rate aces per service point0.0%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo51.6%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo50.9%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down
Collapse rate lost from a set up
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Federico CinaRoland Garros · 2026-05-24 · C · R323-6 6-4 6-2 6-7 6-4
L vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-23 · C · R325-3
L vs Ethan QuinnBarcelona Open · 2026-04-13 · C · R1287-5 7-6
L vs Taylor FritzMiami Open · 2026-03-22 · H · R326-3 6-4
L vs Taylor FritzMiami Open · 2026-03-21 · H · 6-3 7-6(4)
W vs Jose Maria DraperMiami Open · 2026-03-20 · H · R647-6 7-6
W vs Nuno BorgesMiami Open · 2026-03-19 · H · R1286-7 6-2 7-6
L vs Bryan SheltonBNP Paribas Open · 2026-03-06 · H · R646-7 7-6 6-3
L vs Ben SheltonIndian Wells ATP · 2026-03-06 · H ·
W vs Ethan QuinnBNP Paribas Open · 2026-03-04 · H · R1287-5 7-6
Career splits
Overall223-188 (54.3%)
Hard168-126 (57.1%)
Clay44-46 (48.9%)
Grass11-16 (40.7%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Backed vs Federico CinaRoland Garros · 2026-05-24 · C@ 2.86 · LOST
Backed vs Nicolai Budkov KjaerMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-23 · C@ 1.99 · WON · +1.48u
Backed vs Nuno BorgesMiami Open presented by Itau · 2026-03-18 · H@ 1.83 · WON · +1.66u
Frequently asked
How old is Reilly Opelka?

Reilly Opelka was born on 28 August 1997, making them 28 years old and represents United States. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Reilly Opelka in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Reilly Opelka has gone 0-5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first) — struggling for form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Reilly Opelka's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Reilly Opelka's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 2036 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 14-13.

How does Reilly Opelka perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.574 — below tour median — fades in pressure moments. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Reilly Opelka's career win rate?

Reilly Opelka has won 223 of 411 matches in our database (54.3%). By surface: hard 168-126, clay 44-46, grass 11-16.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Reilly Opelka?

Yes — we've issued 3 settled signals involving Reilly Opelka. Record: 2 wins, 1 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Reilly Opelka play on?

Reilly Opelka competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Reilly Opelka: 2W 1L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-05-24. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling