Carlos Alcaraz
- Holds serve 86% of the time even against top-10 opposition.
- Strongest on clay — weighted Elo 2297.
- Wins 77% of deciding sets — a genuine closer.
Form & fitness
Model carry-in
Carlos Alcaraz sits in the world-class band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On clay, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: good — better than tour median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on clay reads as around tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 360-95 (79.1%) across 455 matches — hard 172-52, clay 158-39, grass 30-4. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.
How well Carlos Alcaraz holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.
Full data & recent form
How old is Carlos Alcaraz?
Carlos Alcaraz was born on 05 May 2003, making them 23 years old and represents Spain. They compete on the ATP tour.
Is Carlos Alcaraz in form right now?
Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Carlos Alcaraz has gone 3-2 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first) — in solid form. Form is refreshed nightly.
What is Carlos Alcaraz's best surface?
By our weighted Elo measure, Carlos Alcaraz's strongest surface is clay, where they rate at 2297 Welo. Their record in our database on clay over the last 52 weeks is 5-2.
How does Carlos Alcaraz perform under pressure?
Their choke index reads 0.310 — good — better than tour median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.
What is Carlos Alcaraz's career win rate?
Carlos Alcaraz has won 360 of 455 matches in our database (79.1%). By surface: hard 172-52, clay 158-39, grass 30-4.
How often does Carlos Alcaraz hold serve?
Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Carlos Alcaraz to hold 68.5% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.
What tour does Carlos Alcaraz play on?
Carlos Alcaraz competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.
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Methodology
Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.
Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-04-16. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling