fault.betPlayersLorenzo Musetti
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ATP · Player Profile

Lorenzo Musetti

ATP · Italy · Updated 21 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-05-08
At a glance · Lorenzo Musetti

Form & fitness

Form
Solid form
last 10 matches · 2L streak
Fitness
Long layoff
40 days rest · 0 matches in 28d
Last match
40d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 10 months↓ -195 pts

Model carry-in

Lorenzo Musetti sits in the top tier band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On clay, the model rates them in line with their overall level. Pressure profile: elite under pressure. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on clay reads as well above tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 273-200 (57.7%) across 473 matches — hard 122-116, clay 133-73, grass 18-11. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Clay
2079
Hard
2000
Grass
1679
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1070.6%
Hold rate vs 11–5076.4%
Hold rate vs 51–10073.2%
Hold rate vs 100+84.0%

How well Lorenzo Musetti holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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143W 189L · +15.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2157
top tier
Clay Welo
2145
in line with overall (-13)
Choke Index
0.064
elite under pressure
Projected Hold
83.8%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo2000 (-158)
Hold % (52w)98.0%
Last 52w20-10
Clay
Welo2145
Hold % (52w)87.2%
Last 52w5-4
Grass
Welo1679 (-478)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w0-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-05-08
Hold rate service games won84.3%
Break rate return games won27.4%
First serve in 1st serves landing in63.3%
Ace rate aces per service point1.4%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo80.0%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo50.0%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down40.6%
Collapse rate lost from a set up6.3%
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Christian RuudInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-12 · C · R166-3 6-1
L vs Casper RuudInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-12 · H · R326-3 6-1
W vs Francisco CerundoloInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-10 · H · R327-6 6-4
W vs Giovanni Mpetshi PerricardInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-08 · H · R326-4 6-4
L vs Jiri LeheckaMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-28 · C · R326-3 6-3
W vs Tallon GriekspoorMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-26 · C · R326-4 7-5
W vs Hubert HurkaczMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-24 · C · R326-4 7-6
L vs Arthur FilsBarcelona Open · 2026-04-17 · C · QF6-3 6-4
W vs Corentin MoutetBarcelona Open · 2026-04-16 · C · R646-3 6-4
W vs Martin LandaluceBarcelona Open · 2026-04-14 · C · R1287-5 6-2
Career splits
Overall273-200 (57.7%)
Hard122-116 (51.3%)
Clay133-73 (64.6%)
Grass18-11 (62.1%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Backed vs Casper RuudATP Rome 2026 · 2026-05-12 · C@ 2.54 · LOST · -0.90u
Frequently asked
How old is Lorenzo Musetti?

Lorenzo Musetti was born on 03 March 2002, making them 24 years old and represents Italy. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Lorenzo Musetti in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Lorenzo Musetti has gone 2-3 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first) — in patchy form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Lorenzo Musetti's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Lorenzo Musetti's strongest surface is clay, where they rate at 2079 Welo. Their record in our database on clay over the last 52 weeks is 5-4.

How does Lorenzo Musetti perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.064 — elite under pressure. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Lorenzo Musetti's career win rate?

Lorenzo Musetti has won 273 of 473 matches in our database (57.7%). By surface: hard 122-116, clay 133-73, grass 18-11.

How often does Lorenzo Musetti hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Lorenzo Musetti to hold 83.8% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Lorenzo Musetti?

Yes — we've issued 1 settled signals involving Lorenzo Musetti. Record: 0 wins, 1 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Lorenzo Musetti play on?

Lorenzo Musetti competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Lorenzo Musetti: 0W 1L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-05-08. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling