fault.betPlayersTomas Machac
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ATP · Player Profile

Tomas Machac

ATP · Czech Republic · Updated 21 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-05-27
At a glance · Tomas Machac

Form & fitness

Form
Mixed form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Active
25 days rest · 1 match in 28d
Last match
25d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 11 months↓ -166 pts

Model carry-in

Tomas Machac sits in the top tier band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On clay, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: tour-median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on clay reads as below tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 282-166 (62.9%) across 448 matches — hard 187-98, clay 78-56, grass 9-8. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Clay
1966
Hard
1908
Grass
1642
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1080.3%
Hold rate vs 11–5082.8%
Hold rate vs 51–10085.4%
Hold rate vs 100+85.3%

How well Tomas Machac holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Jesper De Jong 4 meetings3–1

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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143W 189L · +15.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2122
top tier
Clay Welo
1966
-157 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.381
tour-median
Projected Hold
61.7%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1908 (-214)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w13-16
Clay
Welo1966 (-157)
Hold % (52w)78.3%
Last 52w6-5
Grass
Welo1642 (-480)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w1-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-05-27
Hold rate service games won78.3%
Break rate return games won17.9%
First serve in 1st serves landing in15.1%
Ace rate aces per service point8.7%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo57.9%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo55.9%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down
Collapse rate lost from a set up
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Alexander ZverevRoland Garros · 2026-05-27 · C · R326-4 6-2 6-2
W vs Zizou BergsRoland Garros · 2026-05-24 · C · R326-4 6-4 6-3
L vs Daniil MedvedevInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-09 · H · R32
W vs Stefanos TsitsipasInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-07 · H · R326-4 7-6
L vs Cameron NorrieMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-24 · C · R326-2 6-7 7-6
W vs Francisco ComesanaMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-22 · C · R323-6 7-6 6-3
L vs Andrey RublevBarcelona Open · 2026-04-17 · C · QF6-4 6-3
W vs Carlos AlcarazBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell · 2026-04-16 · C · R32
W vs Sebastian BaezBarcelona Open · 2026-04-14 · C · R1282-6 6-4 6-1
L vs Jannik SinnerMonte Carlo Masters · 2026-04-09 · C · R326-1 6-7 6-3
Career splits
Overall282-166 (62.9%)
Hard187-98 (65.6%)
Clay78-56 (58.2%)
Grass9-8 (52.9%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Backed vs Sebastian BaezBarcelona Open Banc Sabadell · 2026-04-13 · C@ 1.52 · WON · +1.04u
Backed vs Daniel AltmaierRolex Monte-Carlo Masters · 2026-04-06 · C@ 1.68 · WON · +1.36u
Backed vs Rafael JodarGrand Prix Hassan II · 2026-04-02 · H@ 1.85 · LOST · -1.91u
Frequently asked
How old is Tomas Machac?

Tomas Machac was born on 13 October 2000, making them 25 years old and represents Czech Republic. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Tomas Machac in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Tomas Machac has gone 2-3 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first) — in patchy form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Tomas Machac's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Tomas Machac's strongest surface is clay, where they rate at 1966 Welo. Their record in our database on clay over the last 52 weeks is 6-5.

How does Tomas Machac perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.381 — tour-median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Tomas Machac's career win rate?

Tomas Machac has won 282 of 448 matches in our database (62.9%). By surface: hard 187-98, clay 78-56, grass 9-8.

How often does Tomas Machac hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Tomas Machac to hold 61.7% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Tomas Machac?

Yes — we've issued 3 settled signals involving Tomas Machac. Record: 2 wins, 1 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Tomas Machac play on?

Tomas Machac competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Tomas Machac: 2W 1L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-05-27. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling