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ATP · Player Profile

Todd Paul

ATP · United States · Updated 23 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-04-05
At a glance · Todd Paul

Form & fitness

Form
Strong form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Match-sharp
2 days rest · 5 matches in 28d
Last match
2d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 9 monthsStable

Model carry-in

Todd Paul sits in the world-class band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On clay, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: tour-median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Career record in our database: 112-84 (57.1%) across 196 matches — hard 87-67, clay 20-14, grass 5-3. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
1895
Clay
1704
Grass
1617
Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Jenson Brooksby 3 meetings2–1
Michael Ryderstedt 3 meetings0–3
Robbye Poole 3 meetings0–3

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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146W 192L · +16.4% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2259
world-class
Clay Welo
1704
-555 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.412
tour-median
Projected Hold
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1895 (-364)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w14-7
Clay
Welo1704 (-555)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w9-2
Grass
Welo1617 (-642)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w5-2
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-04-05
Hold rate service games won
Break rate return games won
First serve in 1st serves landing in
Ace rate aces per service point
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo45.6%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo56.4%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down
Collapse rate lost from a set up
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Francisco CerundoloQueen's Club Championships · 2026-06-21 · G · F6-7 6-4 6-3
W vs Ugo HumbertQueen's Club Championships · 2026-06-20 · G · SF6-3 6-3
W vs Alejandro Davidovich FokinaQueen's Club Championships · 2026-06-19 · G · QF6-3 7-6
W vs Botic Van De ZandschulpQueen's Club Championships · 2026-06-18 · G · R647-6 6-3
W vs Zachary SvajdaQueen's Club Championships · 2026-06-15 · G · R1287-5 6-3
L vs Ignacio BuseHamburg Open · 2026-05-23 · C · F7-6 4-6 6-3
W vs Alex De MinaurHamburg Open · 2026-05-22 · C · SF2-6 6-3 6-3
W vs Daniel AltmaierHamburg Open · 2026-05-21 · C · QF6-2 7-5
W vs Tomas Martin EtcheverryHamburg Open · 2026-05-20 · C · R646-7 7-6 7-6
W vs Ethan QuinnHamburg Open · 2026-05-17 · C · R1286-1 6-3
Career splits
Overall112-84 (57.1%)
Hard87-67 (56.5%)
Clay20-14 (58.8%)
Grass5-3 (62.5%)
Frequently asked
How old is Todd Paul?

Todd Paul was born on 26 December 1985, making them 40 years old and represents United States. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Todd Paul in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Todd Paul has gone 4-1 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first) — in strong form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Todd Paul's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Todd Paul's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 1895 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 14-7.

How does Todd Paul perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.412 — tour-median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Todd Paul's career win rate?

Todd Paul has won 112 of 196 matches in our database (57.1%). By surface: hard 87-67, clay 20-14, grass 5-3.

What tour does Todd Paul play on?

Todd Paul competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-04-05. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling