fault.betPlayersSebastian Korda
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ATP · Player Profile

Sebastian Korda

ATP · United States · Updated 23 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-03-24
At a glance · Sebastian Korda

Form & fitness

Form
Strong form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Returning from break
91 days rest · 0 matches in 28d
Last match
91d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 7 monthsStable

Model carry-in

Sebastian Korda sits in the world-class band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On hard, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: tour-median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on hard reads as around tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 410-339 (54.7%) across 749 matches — hard 278-206, clay 96-95, grass 23-22. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
1953
Clay
1818
Grass
1592
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1075.3%
Hold rate vs 11–5081.7%
Hold rate vs 51–10087.3%
Hold rate vs 100+88.1%

How well Sebastian Korda holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Dane Dunlap 7 meetings2–5
Irfan Hussain 6 meetings2–4

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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146W 192L · +16.4% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2255
world-class
Hard Welo
1953
-302 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.436
tour-median
Projected Hold
67.2%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1953 (-302)
Hold % (52w)83.4%
Last 52w23-15
Clay
Welo1818 (-437)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w
Grass
Welo1592 (-663)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-03-24
Hold rate service games won90.2%
Break rate return games won16.0%
First serve in 1st serves landing in60.0%
Ace rate aces per service point87.1%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo52.4%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo51.3%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down
Collapse rate lost from a set up
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Martin LandaluceMiami Open · 2026-03-24 · H · R162-6 7-6 6-4
W vs Carlos AlcarazMiami Open · 2026-03-22 · H · R326-3 5-7 6-4
W vs Camilo Ugo CarabelliMiami Open · 2026-03-21 · H · R646-0 6-3
L vs Alex De MinaurBNP Paribas Open · 2026-03-07 · H · R644-6 6-4 6-4
W vs Francisco ComesanaBNP Paribas Open · 2026-03-06 · H · R1287-5 6-0
W vs Todd PaulDelray Beach Open · 2026-02-22 · H · F6-4 6-3
W vs Flavio CobolliDelray Beach Open · 2026-02-21 · H · SF7-6 6-1
W vs Christian RuudDelray Beach Open · 2026-02-20 · H · QF4-6 6-2 6-2
W vs Casper RuudDelray Beach ATP · 2026-02-20 · H ·
W vs Alex MichelsenDelray Beach Open · 2026-02-18 · H · R646-3 7-6
Career splits
Overall410-339 (54.7%)
Hard278-206 (57.4%)
Clay96-95 (50.3%)
Grass23-22 (51.1%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Faded vs Sebastian KordaMiami Open · 2026-03-24 · H@ 4.40 · WON · +1.02u
Frequently asked
How old is Sebastian Korda?

Sebastian Korda was born on 05 July 2000, making them 25 years old and represents United States. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Sebastian Korda in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Sebastian Korda has gone 3-2 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first) — in solid form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Sebastian Korda's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Sebastian Korda's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 1953 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 23-15.

How does Sebastian Korda perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.436 — tour-median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Sebastian Korda's career win rate?

Sebastian Korda has won 410 of 749 matches in our database (54.7%). By surface: hard 278-206, clay 96-95, grass 23-22.

How often does Sebastian Korda hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Sebastian Korda to hold 67.2% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Sebastian Korda?

Yes — we've issued 1 settled signals involving Sebastian Korda. Record: 1 wins, 0 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Sebastian Korda play on?

Sebastian Korda competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Sebastian Korda: 1W 0L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-03-24. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling