fault.betPlayersJordan Thompson
ATP · Player Profile

Jordan Thompson

ATP · Australia · Updated 23 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-01-21
At a glance · Jordan Thompson

Form & fitness

Form
Solid form
last 10 matches
Fitness
Returning from break
153 days rest · 0 matches in 28d
Last match
153d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 6 monthsStable

Model carry-in

Jordan Thompson sits in the world-class band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On hard, the model rates them below their overall number — a surface where their price routinely overstates them. Pressure profile: tour-median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on hard reads as around tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 466-310 (60.1%) across 776 matches — hard 317-199, clay 84-63, grass 65-46. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
1973
Clay
1658
Grass
1606
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1077.0%
Hold rate vs 11–5082.4%
Hold rate vs 51–10083.6%
Hold rate vs 100+86.0%

How well Jordan Thompson holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents
Yoshihito Nishioka 8 meetings2–6
Denis Kudla 7 meetings5–2
Jacob Grills 6 meetings6–0

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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146W 192L · +16.4% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
2306
world-class
Hard Welo
1973
-333 below overall · surface to fade
Choke Index
0.430
tour-median
Projected Hold
67.2%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1973 (-333)
Hold % (52w)82.7%
Last 52w6-3
Clay
Welo1658 (-648)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w
Grass
Welo1606 (-699)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-01-21
Hold rate service games won80.7%
Break rate return games won27.6%
First serve in 1st serves landing in58.3%
Ace rate aces per service point66.8%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo53.4%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo53.9%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down
Collapse rate lost from a set up
Recent form (last 10 matches)
W vs Nuno BorgesAus Open ATP · 2026-01-21 · H ·
L vs Juan Manuel CerundoloAustralian Open ATP · 2026-01-19 · H ·
L vs Ugo HumbertShanghai ATP · 2025-10-03 · H ·
W vs August HolmgrenShanghai ATP · 2025-10-01 · H ·
W vs Brandon NakashimaTokyo ATP · 2025-09-25 · H ·
W vs Alejandro TabiloChengdu ATP · 2025-09-18 · H ·
W vs Adrian MannarinoUS Open ATP · 2025-08-27 · H ·
W vs Corentin MoutetUS Open ATP · 2025-08-24 · H ·
L vs Taylor FritzWimbledon ATP · 2025-07-06 · H ·
L vs Jiri LeheckaRoland Garros ATP · 2025-05-26 · H ·
Career splits
Overall466-310 (60.1%)
Hard317-199 (61.4%)
Clay84-63 (57.1%)
Grass65-46 (58.6%)
Frequently asked
How old is Jordan Thompson?

Jordan Thompson was born on 20 April 1994, making them 32 years old and represents Australia. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Jordan Thompson in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Jordan Thompson has gone 3-2 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first) — in solid form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Jordan Thompson's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Jordan Thompson's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 1973 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 6-3.

How does Jordan Thompson perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.430 — tour-median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Jordan Thompson's career win rate?

Jordan Thompson has won 466 of 776 matches in our database (60.1%). By surface: hard 317-199, clay 84-63, grass 65-46.

How often does Jordan Thompson hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Jordan Thompson to hold 67.2% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

What tour does Jordan Thompson play on?

Jordan Thompson competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-01-21. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling