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ATP · Player Profile

Lorenzo Sonego

ATP · Italy · Updated 21 Jun 2026 · data snapshot 2026-06-21
Next matchToday · 13:00
vs Mariano Navone
Vanda Pharmaceuticals Mallorca Championships · Grass
Our model61%Market57%Price1.74Edge+3.4%
At a glance · Lorenzo Sonego

Form & fitness

Form
Cold streak
last 10 matches · 2L streak
Fitness
Match-sharp
4 days rest · 4 matches in 28d
Last match
4d ago
no retirements or walkovers in 90d
Weighted Elo · 11 months↓ -54 pts

Model carry-in

Lorenzo Sonego sits in the below tour median band of active ATP-tour players by our weighted Elo measure. On grass, the model rates them in line with their overall level. Pressure profile: tour-median. We use this to size break-point and tiebreak edges in close matches. Projected hold rate on grass reads as around tour median against a draw-average opponent. Career record in our database: 366-308 (54.3%) across 674 matches — hard 166-156, clay 172-129, grass 27-22. Live numbers (weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service profile, recent form) refresh nightly and are visible to subscribers.

Surface Elo
Hard
1924
Clay
1861
Grass
1678
Serve hold by opponent quality
Hold rate vs Top 1084.0%
Hold rate vs 11–5078.6%
Hold rate vs 51–10086.3%
Hold rate vs 100+85.7%

How well Lorenzo Sonego holds serve split by the ranking tier of the opponent — the gap between tiers is where value often hides.

Head-to-head · most-played opponents

Full data & recent form

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Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold, full service & return profile (8 metrics), recent form (last 10 matches), and career splits by surface. Same data we use to fire daily signals.
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143W 189L · +15.1% Kelly bank growth · every signal tracked publicly
Weighted Elo
1725
below tour median
Grass Welo
1735
in line with overall (+10)
Choke Index
0.429
tour-median
Projected Hold
70.0%
vs draw-average opponent
Surface profile · snapshot
Hard
Welo1924 (+199)
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w16-16
Clay
Welo1861 (+135)
Hold % (52w)81.6%
Last 52w3-4
Grass
Welo1735
Hold % (52w)
Last 52w3-1
Service & return profile · snapshot 2026-06-21
Hold rate service games won75.7%
Break rate return games won18.8%
First serve in 1st serves landing in63.2%
Ace rate aces per service point0.0%
Tiebreak win pct tiebreaks won, last 36mo34.6%
Deciding-set win pct final-set wins, last 36mo47.4%
Comeback rate recovered from a set down22.1%
Collapse rate lost from a set up29.5%
Recent form (last 10 matches)
L vs Ben SheltonTerra Wortmann Open · 2026-06-17 · H · R327-5 6-3
L vs Nikoloz BasilashviliTerra Wortmann Open · 2026-06-14 · H · R326-4 6-4
W vs Filip Cristian JianuTerra Wortmann Open · 2026-06-13 · H · R327-5 6-3
L vs Tommy PaulRoland Garros · 2026-05-27 · C · R326-3 6-2 6-4
W vs Pierre Hugues HerbertRoland Garros · 2026-05-24 · C · R327-6 5-7 6-2 1-6 6-4
L vs Edas ButvilasGonet Geneva Open · 2026-05-18 · C · R326-3 6-1
L vs Ignacio BuseInternazionali BNL d'Italia · 2026-05-07 · H · R326-3 6-3
L vs Dusan LajovicMutua Madrid Open · 2026-04-22 · C · R326-3 7-6
L vs Andrey RublevBarcelona Open · 2026-04-16 · C · R646-2 6-3
W vs Pablo MartinezBarcelona Open · 2026-04-14 · C · R1286-2 2-6 6-4
Career splits
Overall366-308 (54.3%)
Hard166-156 (51.6%)
Clay172-129 (57.1%)
Grass27-22 (55.1%)
fault.bet signal history · this player
Faded vs Lorenzo SonegoRoland Garros · 2026-05-24 · C@ 2.80 · LOST
Frequently asked
How old is Lorenzo Sonego?

Lorenzo Sonego was born on 11 May 1995, making them 31 years old and represents Italy. They compete on the ATP tour.

Is Lorenzo Sonego in form right now?

Over their last 5 completed matches in our database Lorenzo Sonego has gone 2-3 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first) — in patchy form. Form is refreshed nightly.

What is Lorenzo Sonego's best surface?

By our weighted Elo measure, Lorenzo Sonego's strongest surface is hard, where they rate at 1924 Welo. Their record in our database on hard over the last 52 weeks is 16-16.

How does Lorenzo Sonego perform under pressure?

Their choke index reads 0.429 — tour-median. We compute this from every break-point, tiebreak, and serving-for-the-set scenario over 36 months.

What is Lorenzo Sonego's career win rate?

Lorenzo Sonego has won 366 of 674 matches in our database (54.3%). By surface: hard 166-156, clay 172-129, grass 27-22.

How often does Lorenzo Sonego hold serve?

Against a draw-average opponent on their next match surface, our model projects Lorenzo Sonego to hold 70.0% of their service games. This is computed from rolling 52-week serve and return performance, weighted by opponent strength.

Has fault.bet fired signals on Lorenzo Sonego?

Yes — we've issued 1 settled signals involving Lorenzo Sonego. Record: 0 wins, 1 losses. Every signal is logged publicly at fault.bet/results.

What tour does Lorenzo Sonego play on?

Lorenzo Sonego competes on the ATP tour. Our model covers every active ATP player with 30 or more matches in our database — refreshed nightly with new results and ratings.

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Our signal record on Lorenzo Sonego: 0W 1L · every pick logged at /results
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Methodology

Surface-specific weighted Elo, choke index, projected hold and other signals come from our Markov tennis model trained on 1.8 million matches. Read the methodology: how the Markov model misprices pressure · how the fault.bet model is built · Kelly staking guide.

Numbers refresh nightly from the production model. Last data snapshot: 2026-06-21. Not personalised advice. 18+. Responsible Gambling